The big picture: A small portion of the population is responsible for most crime.Â
How communities perceive crime trends is important—it impacts everything from where people spend their time to where they choose to live and work. In 2024, a poll suggested that most people still believe crime is up, but that number has decreased since 2023.
So, what do we know about who is committing the most crime?
Research* confirms that most violent crimes in the US are committed by a small portion of the population. These individuals typically have a history of offending. Many law enforcement agencies across the country know this and are focusing their crime reduction efforts on these chronic offenders. While law enforcement plays a critical role in public safety, many jurisdictions have expanded their offender-focused programs to incorporate community stakeholders. These partnerships provide unique avenues for problem-solving and building cooperation.*
Establishing an offender-focused program alongside partners can add challenges. However, it may also offer the sustainability needed to achieve long-term effects. While building a model like this sounds promising, does it actually work?
What we know: Focused deterrence works, but the key is building a model that lasts.
Repeat offenders, often referred to as “chronic offenders,” continue to pose a significant challenge for law enforcement worldwide—as they are responsible for a disproportionately large share of crimes.
Recent studies* indicate that these individuals often have many risk factors, such as early exposure to violence, substance misuse, and limited social support. These situations perpetuate a cycle of crime, and by understanding the specific characteristics of repeat offenders, law enforcement can tailor interventions to disrupt these patterns and reduce recidivism.
One of the most robust offender-focused approaches is focused deterrence, which combines targeted enforcement with supportive social services for high-risk offenders. Studies* found that focused deterrence strategies were linked to significant reductions in repeat offending. This collaborative approach starts with identifying the chronic offenders and laying out the consequences of continuing their involvement in violent crimes. These offenders are offered resources like training and treatment to help prevent re-offending. Then, those who continue down the path of crime after this interaction will experience strict penalties, including enhanced prosecution.
When planning and launching a focused deterrence strategy and/or other offender-focused programs, it’s important to consider not only implementation but also sustainability. For example, one jurisdiction found that building accountability structures, developing a sustainability plan, and maintaining a robust network of partners were important features that contributed to the program’s survival during the COVID-19 pandemic. These features enabled the program to maintain community safety when other jurisdictions were struggling with notable increases in violence.
As we mentioned in July’s InFocus last year, implementation matters.
Reducing Recidivism in Riley County: The Riley County Police Department is sustaining a strategy that has worked for over 15 years.
The Riley County Police Department realized in 2009 that they needed a robust offender-focused strategy to target their county’s chronic violators. In 2010, RCPD launched the Repeat Offender Program (ROP), and its success has a 15-year track record. Learn how they did it.
The bottom line: Focused deterrence is a strong option for agencies looking to disrupt a cycle of crime, but it’s not the only one.
While research suggests that focused deterrence works when implemented correctly, the strategy may not be sustainable for every agency. These resources offer other alternatives for reducing chronic offenders’ recidivism and ultimately keeping officers and their communities safe.
- Focused deterrence guide. This guide outlines a focused deterrence strategy for repeat offenders that emphasizes the importance of certainty of punishment. This idea increases the perceived risk of getting caught, leading to potential hesitancy in re-offending.
- Explore step-by-step. This toolkit provides a roadmap of focused deterrence steps and what to include.
- Respond to repeat offenders. This guide provides an overview of strategies for responding to repeat offending by focusing on understanding and tackling the root causes of persistent criminal behavior.
- Check out this webinar. In 2021, the Public Safety Partnership held a webinar with the Kansas City Police Department’s (KCPD) Career Criminal Unit on how they enhance public safety by focusing on high-risk offenders and leveraging federal resources and expertise.
We invite you to discover NPI’s impact in our 2024 Annual Report.
*Review research citations used in this issue here.
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